2015 MLB Prediction: The San Francisco Giants Don’t Make the Playoffs

The defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants didn’t lose all that much this offseason. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval left town via free agency for a bigger contract and a new challenge. Other than him, there weren’t too many significant changes to the roster.

Although the Giants still have one of the best pitching rotations when you write them down on paper, I’m predicting the 2015 season is sans playoff baseball in San Francisco.

There are two main reasons why I don’t think the Giants are making the postseason. The first is the competition the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres give them in the National League West. The second reason is how overall improved several teams in the National League are looking. In particular, the NL Central looks really strong. There isn’t a team in the five I’d be absolutely shocked to see win one of the wild cards and beat the Giants.

Champions in 2014, the Giants still only won 88 games. Other than Madison Bumgarner, no one on the pitching staff really stood out. Tim Lincecum was pushed to the bullpen and Tim Hudson finished with a below .500 record after a quick start.

Offensively, the Giants also weren’t very good. Their outfield in particular still needs work. Other than Hunter Pence, there’s no one to give them much power out there. Between Pence and Buster Posey and maybe Brandon Belt, the Giants are going to have to win a lot of 3-2 games.

By Eltiempo10 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

No playoffs, okay. So how many wins do you predict for the Giants in 2015?

I still think the Giants finish above .500. I’ll predict 84 wins although I’m not very committed to any number in particular. A prediction of 84 wins is certainly fair considering this team only won 76 in 2013 in between World Series victories.

I’m guessing Bumgarner has another stellar season, Matt Cain‘s return is decent, and the Giants frantically make a move in July in hopes it can get them to the postseason. It won’t be enough, though, as the NL has more competition than ever.

The Story Behind the ‘Graph: Matt Cain

Before he was one of baseball’s pitchers and then one of baseball’s pitchers who suddenly lost it all, Matt Cain was pitching in Double-A and was kind enough to sign some baseball cards for me. Of the three: Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Madison Bumgarner–Cain is my favorite because of our brief encounter which from an autograph collecting perspective went perfectly.

San Francisco Giants Not Signing James Shields or Max Scherzer

The defending champion San Francisco Giants are no longer pursuing free agent pitcher James Shields. Additionally, they were apparently never interested in Max Scherzer in a realistic world.

By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (Max Scherzer) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

The current rotation is shaping up to include Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, and Tim Lincecum. A great rotation if they were all in their prime, questions remain.

Bumgarner is the only sure-thing of the five following his memorable performance in the 2014 postseason. Even so, some have wondered if his arm can hold up with all of the extra innings he was asked to pitch so late into the year.

Peavy has had his struggles in recent seasons as has Cain, who suffered a season-ending injury. For the Tims, Hudson is probably pitching in his final season while Lincecum could have his last chance to make the starting rotation. We have seen the best and worst from Lincecum in the last few seasons, but as the team’s fifth starter how good does he really need to be?

By Bryce Edwards from San Jose, CA, USA (Matt Cain Uploaded by Muboshgu) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

The more pressing need for the Giants is with their offense. Losing Pablo Sandoval and replacing him with Casey McGehee shows the poor direction they are headed. One player they may be after now is Tampa Bay Rays’ infielder/outfielder Ben Zobrist who could play almost anywhere in San Francisco. The Giants are lacking all over the field with the exception of Buster Posey at catcher. Even the great Hunter Pence was not an elite player, better utilized as a locker room leader.

Repeating is hard under any circumstances. Even if they had signed Shields or traded for an equivalent-level pitcher, the Giants have to deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres within the division. Although they won the World Series last season, we need to remember if they had lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Wild Card game it would have never happened.

Five Statistical Facts about Madison Bumgarner

It seems like Madison Bumgarner has been pitching for the San Francisco Giants and winning games for a lot longer than he actually has. Drafted by the team in the first round back in 2007, Bumgarner has become the team’s ace after Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain seem to have lost their ability to pitch at a top level. A potential future Cy Young winner, here are five statistical facts about Bumgarner, the 2014 NLCS MVP.

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Each season Bumgarner seems to get better. The 2014 season was his most in wins with 18, most in complete games with 4, and he set a new career high in strikeouts with 219. Bumgarner was better in a few other categories too and could amaze us once again in 2015. Hell, I’ll guarantee he does.

Batting

We know Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but what we may not have realized is he may be the best hitting pitcher as well. In 2014, Bumgarner hit 4 home runs and had 15 RBIs with a .258 batting average. Those 4 home runs put him at 6 on his career. Although he isn’t quite ready to DH during interleague games taking place in American League cities, Bumgarner is surely supplying the Giants with a nice bat at the back of the lineup.

By Eltiempo10 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

Stopping the Los Angeles Dodgers

Several players on the rival Los Angeles Dodgers have some absolutely dreadful numbers against Bumgarner. Matt Kemp has a career .212 batting average, Adrian Gonzalez is only hitting .114, and Andre Ethier is only slightly better at .125. Although he no longer plays for them, former member of the Dodgers Mark Ellis is 2 for 22 off of Bumgarner lifetime for a .091 batting average. It should come as no surprise why the Giants have won the World Series twice recently and the Dodgers have not even been there.

Five-Hole Hitters Doing the Best Against

The best spot to hit against Bumgarner is apparently in the five-hole. In 396 at-bats, five-hole hitters are hitting .275 against him. The second best spot in the lineup is the two-hole with only a .261 average. Although five-hole hitters have had the most success, Bumgarner has been his usual dominant self against batters six through nine.

Better on the Road?

Bumgarner has had 69 starts at home and 79 on the road. These ten additional starts away from San Francisco may actually have benefited him as several statistics of his are better while spending time in the visitor’s dugout. Bumgarner is 30-22 at home and 37-27 on the road. His ERA is 11 points lower on the road, which is of course nothing drastic. Perhaps the proper way to word it is that he’s just as good on the road. For Bumgarner, he doesn’t care what city the mound is in; he’s ready to pitch.

MLB Aces in Need of a Big Second Half

Today begins the second half of the 2014 MLB season. Unfortunately a pitcher cannot necessarily start from scratch after the All-Star Break. Everything he did in the first half is still there on the stat sheet and on the frontal lobe of his mind. Instead of looming over the failures of the first 3 and a half months of the season a real ace would put the failures behind and push forward. These are a few front of the rotation pitching stars who need big second halves.

James Shields

A god among men in the starting rotation for the Kansas City Royals, James Shields needs to improve in the second half. He hasn’t been dreadful or anything. In fact he is 9-5 with a 3.65 ERA and coming off several good outings. Shields’s suffering this season has largely been in games where he completely lost control of the scoreboard.

As unbelievable as it may seem, the Royals are right in the playoff hunt not only for the Wild Card, but also for the American League Central. If Shields can pitch like the ace the Royals believe he is the team can capture a playoff berth. Shields will need some help from the weak offense the Royals have to turn his season around. If the bats fail they can always remind him how much money he will make in free agency if he becomes unhittable down the stretch. Surely that will get him going.

Justin Verlander

Hopefully someday Justin Verlander isn’t on a “Whatever Happened To?” list. The way things are going in 2014 he may just end up on several E! Network specials about fallen celebrities. Verlander was once the ace of the Detroit Tigers. Now he looks far more like a fourth starter than anything else. Verlander’s 8-8 record with a 4.88 ERA in the first half represents just how far the former Cy Young and MVP Award winner has fallen.

There’s no real explanation for his poor performance either other than age or hanging around Mark Fidrych a little too much. Verlander’s struggles put the Tigers in a tough position as they will likely lose Max Scherzer to free agency after this season. Once Scherzer is gone the team will be down a top pitcher and potentially out of contention.

C.J. Wilson

Injuries have plagued the Texas Rangers and suddenly the Los Angeles Angels are picking up a few more victories. They have done this without starting pitcher C.J. Wilson playing particularly well either. Especially of late, Wilson has been pretty bad to say the least. Wilson could blame his dandruff except as we all know he uses Head and Shoulders.

Blame should instead be put Wilson’s sudden urge to give up home runs. Already in the first half he has thrown 14 gopher balls. His career high has been 19, which will most likely be shattered this season. Wilson needs to believe in his stuff and his team. The Angels have a potent offense and will be able to bail him out of some bad situations, but only if Wilson does his part.

Every Pitcher on the San Francisco Giants

With the exception of Tim Hudson the rest of the rotation for the San Francisco Giants needs to do a little better. Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum have been up and down while Ryan Vogelsong has suffered more losses than he deserves. Matt Cain is the one guy in the rotation who appears to have lost any effectiveness. Since he is now pretty much the team’s fifth starter they are in good hands considering Cain is the worst option they have. Still, in order to win the World Series all of these men have to do a little better.

In addition to the rotation the Giants have to hope their bullpen can keep up with the first half success. Sergio Romo has lost his job as closer to Santiago Casilla so it’s still up in the air as to whether things will remain stable in the 9th inning or not. Finally the Giants have an offense at least comparable to the Los Angeles Dodgers, admittedly weaker. If the Giants want to win the division the pitching needs to improve or else they will enter the playoffs as the weakest team in the National League.

Photo Credit: By Cacophony (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons