Dear Billy Beane, You’re an Idiot (And So Am I)

Dear Billy Beane,

What is it like to pinch every penny you ever see? Is this some kind of medical condition or does it just make you feel big to have so much power over such a weak piece of currency?

Allegory aside let me get right to the point.

You’re an idiot.

By Silent Sensei from Santa Cruz, USA (Oakland A’s) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

On Friday November 28, 2014 you proved to the world you have no clue what you are doing. You have lost all touch with reality. You have shown the world you are self-serving and stubborn. You traded away your team’s best player when last season they, the Oakland Athletics, could have made a run to the World Series. Unfortunately that run didn’t last long because you guys couldn’t score any–runs that is.

You did make the playoffs though and if not for some late inning heroics by the Kansas City Royals you would have advanced beyond the joke wild card game. You guys had it. I believe so strongly that the moves you made in the summer would put you over the type. Even trading away Yoenis Cespedes, I accepted it. I guess this makes me an idiot too because anyone who would praise your genius now has to be missing a few brain cells or owns one too many pink baseball caps.

Even the recent acquisition of Billy Butler was a move I agreed with and respected. You got him cheap and I think he can really contribute for the Athletics in the years to come. But this was assuming Josh Donaldson would still be there. Now he’s just another designated hitter without the power to back it up.

For statistical and financial reasons, Donaldson should have remained a member of the Athletics. I know how much you love analytics so why would you ever trade the third highest ranking player in WAR last season? Only Mike Trout (AL MVP) and Clayton Kershaw (NL MVP and NL Cy Young Winner) had a better Wins Above Replacement. Donaldson’s 7.42 WAR was so good it even ousted the American League Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber and everyone else in baseball.

Donaldson gave the Athletics home run power and steady defense at third base. He may never win a Gold Glove, but when you hit 30 home runs and knock in 100 runs it’s not necessary.

In return for Donaldson you brought Brett Lawrie and a few minor league players. I don’t care to learn anything about those minor leaguers because by the time they are ready to make the big league roster you will have traded away the team’s stars and Lawrie will have another broken hand.

From a more human standpoint, there were just as many reasons to keep Donaldson. He was a good locker room guy, a fan-favorite, and arguably the face of the franchise. You screwed the fans on this one worse than anything.

Rooting for the Philadelphia Phillies like I do, I know how to sniff out a bad general manager. The Phillies have Ruben Amaro Jr. and he’s already done what you currently are. So congratulations, you’re two years behind the worst GM in baseball. At least he has been to the World Series.

Amaro Jr. screwed the Phillies after the 2009 season when he acquired star pitcher Roy Halladay and followed it up by trading Cliff Lee. Lee was as affordable as a star pitcher gets and if he was with the Phillies in 2010 they would have had a much better chance at winning their second World Series in three years. Instead they came up short in the NLCS.

Please note: the NLCS is the National League Championship Series. The American League has the ALCS. The only time the Athletics have made it there under your guidance was 2006 and you were swept by the Detroit Tigers. Now you know.

Even without a rooting interest in the Athletics, I have to hate you for what you did to this franchise. You took the one guy the fans could really love and sent him to another country. You really wanted to get rid of your one shot at winning, eh? – Canadian pun not intended

Since taking over as the GM in 1998, the Athletics are 1-8 in the postseason. This doesn’t include the 9 seasons the team failed to get there. I can appreciate the team’s consistency at making it to the postseason however to ignore your ineptitude at helping the team get further the following season is criminal.

In 2001 the A’s won 102 games and were bounced in the first round of the playoffs. The only moves you made that offseason going into 2002 of note were trading for David Justice and Justin Duchscherer and signing free agent veteran Randy Velarde. During the season, you picked up John Mabry, Ray Durham, and Ricardo Rincon. Would it have hurt the pockets of the owners too much to have someone a little better on the roster? I’m beginning to imagine you as a meek character too afraid to stand up to the owners and ask for a little more money to make the roster of the salaries worth it. I cannot help but feel like more could/should have been done.

I’m happy to know the fans are upset with you. Trying to feed them Butler like he’s some kind of superstar is embarrassing. Butler is James Loney without the defense and some more power. Playing half of his games at your disgusting stadium almost as ugly as your uniforms, I will be surprised to see Butler reach double digits in home runs. He didn’t even do it last year on a pennant winning team.

Your Moneyball technique doesn’t win championships. The only proof needed is that you have not won a championship. By the looks of it, you never will.

As if sports fans in Oakland weren’t having a bad enough end of the year with the Oakland Raiders, you went and tore their hearts out. I hope the surplus of Donaldson jerseys in your stadium store are never sold and the production cost is taken out of your stolen paycheck you fraudulent used car salesman.

On behalf of the rest of the teams in the American League West, thank you Billy Beane!

On behalf of the players and fans of the Athletics, ughhhhhhh.

Congratulations on giving your team October off in 2015. I’m sure they appreciate it.

All my best,
Tim Boyle

Fantasy Baseball Keepers Battle: Ian Kinsler or Neil Walker?

A regular upcoming feature on The Cleat Report–the most unpopular news, statistical analysis, and anything else to do with baseball blog on the Internet–will be regularly discussing the topic of Keeper Leagues in Fantasy Baseball.

Fantasy Baseball has become important to me, so much so I capitalize both words in the name like it’s God.

Keeper Leagues are ones where players carry over from season to season. You are building not only a roster for the current season, but also for the indefinite future.

Since there are endless battles that could go on, I will strictly be using ones only possible in my fantasy baseball league. This keeps things a little realistic to questions you may actually have since debating whether you should keep Mike Trout or Giancarlo Stanton is very unlikely as nobody will ever have to make that decision. Nobody should have both of them on their team, however, if they do you probably don’t need my advice anyway.

Our first battle will be between the two second basemen on my team: Ian Kinsler and Neil Walker. Obviously Kinsler was the guy I had expected to start the majority of the games in 2014, and he did, but the season Walker had makes me wonder which guy is the right one to keep. This is assuming I don’t decide on both.

Based on the league’s scoring in 2014, Kinsler wins out. He earned 478.5 points compared to Walker’s 390.5. It may look like a simple choice to make. I assure you, it’s not so simple.

Kinsler averaged 3.0 points per start compared to Walker’s 2.9. Again, Kinsler wins; this time only slightly. The league leader in plate appearances and at-bats, Kinsler’s biggest statistical advantage in 2014 was the opportunities he had. Kinsler played in 161 games for the Detroit Tigers while Walker tallied 137 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as “Ian Kinsler”) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Age is also important to consider for a Keeper League Manager’s decision-making. Kinsler will start the season at 32-years-old and Walker will be 29-years-old. Although not ancient by any means, we can expect Kinsler’s numbers to slightly go down and should not be surprised if Walker’s go up. Generally the 28-32 range is the prime of a player’s career. Walker is just entering this as Kinsler’s exits.

Most important now are the projected numbers for 2015. A lot of this is not yet set as we have a whole offseason for both to survive, a preseason to get back in shape, and a team around them to build. Without knowing all of this, here’s an educated guess.

Kinsler set a career high in hits and RBIs in 2014. Playing in 161 games, he had every chance to do so. His on-base percentage though, at only .307, was a huge disappointment. He didn’t draw his walks and thankfully in fantasy baseball this isn’t too important. Most leagues, like mine, a single is as many points as a walk. If your league does however consider on-base percentage, don’t forget about how poor Kinsler’s may be.

For Walker, he too set several career highs in 2014. His 23 home runs came from out of nowhere. He also fell just short on setting new highs in runs and RBIs, which would have come easier if he was a little healthier.

By Blackngold29 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

That reminds me, Kinsler has been much healthier in his career than Walker has. Only once has Walker played in 140 games or more. Kinsler has played in 140 games or more 3 of the last 4 seasons.

Every argument I seem to make, Kinsler comes out on top. Other than some blind faith that Walker will have a career year in 2015, Kinsler is the guy to stick with. We can expect no matter what for the Tigers to have another great season on offense with Kinsler at the top of the lineup scoring plenty of runs. Walker will probably be somewhere in the middle for the Pirates and there are still some questions as to how good they will be.

I really wanted to give Walker a better chance, but it looks like I will have to regrettably not keep him and hope he returns to the team in the draft.

Five Statistical Facts about Hunter Pence

A ballplayer with the nickname “Captain Underpants” has to be an eccentric character. Indeed, Hunter Pence is. He’s as unconventional of an athlete as you will see and yet very successful at it. He has also become a leader for the San Francisco Giants. For all he is doing in the locker room, he’s doing plenty good on the field too. Here are five statistical facts about the man who 94 WIP host Anthony Gargano referred to as the “headless horseman” based on how he tracks a fly ball. He couldn’t have been more correct.

The Ultimate Robin

One thing some sports talk hosts like to do is determine whether a player is a Batman or a Robin. Batmans are players who are the number one guy. Robins are the supporting cast, usually very good, but never quite the best. For me, Pence is the ultimate Robin. He has only ever knocked in 100 runs once and has never reached 30 home runs. Pence is the perfect guy for a lineup with an already established star. Thankfully the Giants have Buster Posey in a Batman uniform.

True Every Day Player

For the past two seasons Pence has played in all 162 games for the Giants. The year previous in 2012, Pence still played in 160 games split between them and the Philadelphia Phillies. Throughout his career Pence has been a guy ready and able to get into the lineup every single day. Since becoming a starter, Pence’s lowest games in a season was 154 back in 2011. If I remember correctly, the Phillies sat most of their players in the last week too which lowered his total of games.

By Mr.schultz (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Where Should He Hit in the Lineup?

The Giants used Pence as a leadoff hitter a lot in 2014, something I disagree with strongly. Batting leadoff, Pence is a career .269 hitter. Batting third in the lineup, a spot he fits in perfectly, Pence has his best average at .301. The way the Giants’ lineup is set, Pence could comfortably hit anywhere from third to fifth. It really depends on where Posey is and if they want to look deep into match-ups or who’s hot.

Equally Good against Lefties and Righties

Pence can handle right handed pitchers just as well as he can left handed ones. Pence has a career .283 average against fellow right handers and a .288 average against left handed ones. Due to the higher number of at-bats against righties because there are more of them, thank you very much Catholic schooling, it’s difficult to compare the rest of the numbers.

A Good Time for a Day Off: Clayton Kershaw on the Mound

It should never be a surprise when Clayton Kershaw has good numbers against a hitter. For Pence, facing Kershaw has been a nightmare. In 53 plate appearances, Pence has struck out 13 times and only gotten 4 hits for a .075 batting average. Kershaw has also never walked Pence which means he knows how well he has done against him.

Who Deserves More Money: Jon Lester or Max Scherzer?

Baseball’s top free agent pitchers this winter are Jon Lester and Max Scherzer. Both born in 1984 with career ERAs of 3.58 and nearly identical win/loss average record per season, you may fool yourself into thinking they are the same man.

Only because Lester debuted two years earlier than Scherzer are their numbers not more similar in several categories. What we can still gather though is that Lester has had more very good seasons compared to Scherzer who has had fewer, but better ones.

The 2013 season for Scherzer was a fantastic one and led to winning the Cy Young Award. He was 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts which he topped in 2014. He has led the league in wins in back-to-back seasons now with 21 and 18. He also finally managed to pitch his first complete game and shutout in 2014. This news comes as a bit of a surprise however when it comes to things like complete games you can sometimes credit or blame the manager.

By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (Max Scherzer) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Meanwhile Lester, like I said, has been pitching for a bit longer and at a more consistent rate. He has 11 complete games in his career and 6 seasons of 200 or more innings pitched. Scherzer has only reached 200 innings in his last two seasons.

The benefit for Scherzer though is a little less aging on his arm. Lester has pitched in close to 300 more innings than Scherzer which means the likelihood of his arm deciding to die on him is higher. It’s still a bit doubtful as Lester has been healthy throughout his major league career since defeating cancer in 2006. He beat the disease and then shifted his motivation over to beating anyone with a baseball bat.

Last season, Lester earned $13 million through arbitration while Scherzer was paid a little more than $15.5 million. Had they both been eligible for another year, the totals would have been even higher and closer. Lester had a career year and Scherzer continued to terrorize.

The main difference between these two is the arm they throw with. Lester is a lefty and Scherzer is a righty. This too has its benefits and troubles. Lester can absolutely dominate left handed batters at the sacrifice of a few more righties hitting him. Scherzer can mow down the righties while the lefties handle him a little better. Since there are more right handed batters the victory here appears to go to Scherzer. This isn’t necessarily true since lineups will adjust and both pitchers can go to war with just about anyone at the plate.

Scherzer does however have only a .222 batting average against him from right handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .243 against Lester, the ones he should have better numbers against and he does.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as “Jon Lester”) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Batting average is not everything, of course, and you can never rely on one statistic to fully understand the impact a player will have.

With all of this said, I see Scherzer as the guy getting the bigger contract because of two main reasons:

1) He has been better in the last two seasons
2) He has more innings left to pitch

One factor to also consider is which one signs first. One will set the market for the other and this could take the second to sign in either direction. He may get more because he’s the best pitcher left or he may get less because greed may have gotten the better of him.

As for which team ends up signing them, I have even less of a clue.

The Story Behind the ‘Graph: Mark Buehrle

Maybe my favorite active pitcher and top 10 overall is Mark Buehrle. He’s a charitable guy very active in terms of animal rights. He has also been a great pitcher that has done just about everything from win a World Series to pitching a Perfect Game. Oh and it certainly helps singing autographs for me through the mail. Thanks Mark!

Corey Dickerson Will Forever be Impossible to Trade

The Colorado Rockies have a bit of a problem this upcoming season. I have proposed a nice solution, however, I doubt anyone is really paying attention to my genius idea to totally reconstruct the thinking of the team.

The problem I’m addressing here is the abundance of outfielders. They have many others, but this is the one to focus on right now. This seems to be a common issue this offseason as the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers are also looking to trade an outfielder to help fulfill another need. Meanwhile there are teams like the Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres in desperate need of some help at any of the three positions.

If they are feeling charitable, the Rockies can help out any of these teams looking for an outfielder. Available players include Charlie Blackmon, Drew Stubbs, the often injured Carlos Gonzalez, and Corey Dickerson. It’s not as full as some outfields and since all but Stubbs are left handed they may need to make a one-for-one trade swapping a left handed bat for a right handed one to actually benefit themselves in the immediate than the future.

The way I see it, any of these four men should be available to trade. The most difficult to trade though may be Dickerson.

Lifetime, Dickerson is a .297 hitter including hitting .312 last season in 436 at-bats. This was only his second season at the big league level and he proved he could start with the Rockies; and I stress with the Rockies.

There is one glaring problem with Dickerson though: he cannot hit away from Coors Field.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as “Corey Dickerson”) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Dickerson’s lifetime average at Coors Field is .346. Away from home, he’s hitting only .245. Last season alone he hit .363 at home and .252 on the road. These numbers are far too drastic and let us know he’s a hitter benefiting from playing half of his games in a place where I could probably knock one off the foul pole on a bunt.

In addition to his struggles against left handed pitchers, Dickerson is becoming a guy who can only have a successful day if it’s at home and against a righty. This is incredibly limiting and hurts his trade value significantly as well as his chances at getting into the starting lineup.

At 25-years-old on opening day 2015 and making the league minimum, there’s no reason for the Rockies to trade him yet. Down the road, if he doesn’t perform at the level the Rockies hope he can, he may end up a free agent and unable to find a starting job with another team because of his inability to play in any city other than Denver.

Dickerson is still a young player and has plenty of time to improve in the other ballparks. Most batters do have better numbers at home, but a .100 point difference cannot be ignored.

 There’s a reason the Rockies were no-hit at Dodger Stadium and not Coors Field last season and it’s because guys like Dickerson, the lead-off hitter that game, cannot play on the road. Of course this was Clayton Kershaw, but the point is Dickerson may be a member of the Rockies for life if only because he’s so good with them and appears like he would be terrible anywhere else.

If the Philadelphia Phillies Trade Cole Hamels, It’s for the Best to Trade Cliff Lee Too

The Philadelphia Phillies built their 2011 team on pitching. Roy Halladay returned for his second season, Roy Oswalt was with the team for the first time on opening day, Cliff Lee came back after spending a year with the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, and Cole Hamels remained as the best homegrown pitcher since Chris Short.

Things didn’t work out so well in the playoffs, but at least they did everything they could in the terms of transactions.

That 2011 season is more and more distant each day, and now the Phillies are at the point where trading Hamels is completely realistic.

As a fan of the team who appreciates Hamels, I’m not sure how I feel about his potential departure. I know it’s for the best, but seeing him in another team’s uniform is like seeing an ex-girlfriend in another man’s bed. Hamels was OUR guy and he’s about to belong to someone else–maybe.

Blevine37 at the English language Wikipedia [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

A lot needs to be done with this team. The best trade piece they have is Hamels and keeping him doesn’t make much sense. If they trade him though, they suddenly lose 8-10 wins and are looking at closing in on a 100 loss season. Since this is the case, what would be the point in holding onto the only other pitcher left over from 2011, Cliff Lee.

Trades in baseball are almost always easier said than done. Sure, plenty teams would love to have Hamels and/or Lee. The problem is their contracts. Both will make over $20 million in 2015 and beyond. The Phillies knew this day was coming. At the hope of winning in 2011, they were willing to load up the back of their players’ contracts.

For instance, in 2016 Lee is due to make $27.5 million. There is a buyout and a few innings totals Lee must reach to get paid everything available. Thankfully for the Phillies in a very melancholy way, he may not pitch enough to earn the extra dough.

The way I see it, the possible scenarios are pretty clear:

Losing Hamels and keeping Lee means the Phillies win 65 games and gain a nice chunk of players in a trade. Losing Hamels and Lee means the Phillies win 60 games and gain two nice chunks of players.

By Keith Allison [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Transversally, if the Phillies keep them both they win 73 games and don’t gain anything for the future other than another mention on the back of a baseball card.

The level of talent the Phillies will get back for Lee at this point is far less than they would have if he was traded two years ago. I’m okay with that. The better strategy may even be to hold onto him into the season and wait until the trade deadline then unload him for whatever you can get. If the Boston Red Sox can get Allen Craig and Joe Kelly for John Lackey, the Phillies can get a starting outfielder and a third or fourth starter for Lee.

Thanks to the second wild card plenty of teams will be buyers next season. The Phillies made the mistake in 2014 at thinking they actually had a chance. They need to be a little more pessimistic in 2015 and realize what they are.

In 1980, Phillies’ closer Tug McGraw said, “You gotta believe.”

In 2015, someone on the Phillies should say, “You can’t possibly believe.”

It’s all for the best.

Five Statistical Facts about David Price

Ask any batter in the National League why they may dislike Interleague Play and one of the reasons is most likely to include the name David Price. He’s laid batters in the American League to rest since debuting in 2008 with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and even into late 2014 with the Detroit Tigers. A soon-to-be free agent pitcher after the 2015 season who could land anywhere, here are five statistical facts you should know about him before he destroys your favorite hitter.

Cy Young Award Winning Season

So far Price is the owner of 1 Cy Young Award with a chance for another in any given season. His lone “best pitcher award” came in 2012 when he was 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA. His wins and ERA led the American League too. Unfortunately a Pitcher’s Triple Crown was out of reach as his 205 strikeouts was not enough.

Striking Out More Batters than Ever

Previous to the 2014 season, Price’s season high for strikeouts had been the 218 he had back in 2011. Batters must be going blind or Price is getting that much better as he absolutely crushed that total in 2014 with 271 strikeouts. Although he pitched in a lot more innings, his strikeouts per 9 was still much higher at 9.8.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Postseason Pitching

When the postseason comes, Price’s time as a dominant pitcher seems to depart. In his career, Price is 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA in the playoffs. His lone win came in relief back in 2008 against the Boston Red Sox. Price’s lack of wins in the postseason has greatly affected the outcome of the series as he has not been on a team to win a Best Of series since 2008.

Better Control

His strikeouts are higher and his control is better; at least from what we can see from his 2014 statistics. In 2014 Price average 1.4 walks per 9. One year earlier, it was slightly better at 1.3 walks per 9. Price also only threw 2 wild pitches in 2014. Pitching 248.1 innings, this is something worth tipping your cap at.

Versus Lefties and Versus Righties

As you may expect, the numbers Price has against left handed batters is a bit better than the ones he has against the right handed ones. Righties are hitting .241 against Price while lefties have a far more embarrassing .211 batting average. Only 16 times in 1185 plate appearances have left handed hitters taken Price deep. This is less than a home run in every 74 plate appearances.

The Story Behind the ‘Graph: Mike Maroth

Starting pitcher Mike Maroth was kind enough to send both of the baseball cards I mailed him back to me signed and include this Bible Card. A Bible Card is a baseball card made by the athlete which usually contains their favorite passage on the back along with other information about their religious beliefs. It’s a lot more common than you may think. I suppose when you lose 20 games in a season like Maroth did in 2003 when he went 9-21 with one of the worst teams in history, the Detroit Tigers, it’s nice to see a man still have faith.

The Toronto Blue Jays Win Black Friday by Acquiring Josh Donaldson

Forget the new television set you picked up at Best Buy or that lovely new blouse you punched a woman in the face at Macy’s to win the right to own. The real winner on Black Friday 2014 was the Toronto Blue Jays.

We were all shocked to learn late tonight that the Blue Jays picked up Josh Donaldson from the Oakland Athletics for Brett Lawrie and a couple of minor leaguers via a trade.

Donaldson is a late-blooming soon to be 29-years-old. In 2013 he finished 4th in the MVP voting and in 2014 he finished 8th. It’s strange that someone with a .268 career batting average and fewer home runs than the single season record could get anyone excited. He does though and a lot of it has to do with the team he is joining.

By NewJack984 (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons

Imagine though, the lineup the Blue Jays are about to have. Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion now have newcomers Russell Martin and Donaldson joining them. Plus, their pitching staff still has Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey along with some young talent like Drew Hutchison. This team is serious about winning and this trade today had made it clear that the rest of the division better keep improving if they want to keep up.

Donaldson fell just short of reaching 30 home runs with the A’s last year which could easily translate to 35-40 with the Blue Jays based on my theory that everyone suddenly learns how to hit home runs when they put the uniform on. Even if his power numbers don’t rise that much, his other statistics should with the protection he will have around him. More importantly, he may be on a team that can actually win.

The biggest loser in all of this right now might be Billy Butler. He came to the Athletics and suddenly their lineup looked a lot better. Donaldson is gone though and once again the team has traded off their best bat like they did with Yoenis Cespedes last year. What is Billy Beane thinking? Is his master plan to always build for a future that never comes?

Congratulations to the Blue Jays for the best deal on Black Friday.

And sorry to all of the A’s fans who bought a beloved family member a Donaldson jersey earlier today. I hope you kept the receipt.